The Nottingham numbers post: meta, win rates, and what actually won games

1) Faction representation: what the room looked like

Top 10 factions by representation (players with recorded games):

Faction	Players	Share of field
Space Marines (Astartes)	32	9.4%
Blood Angels	24	7.0%
Chaos Daemons	20	5.9%
Aeldari	19	5.6%
Astra Militarum	17	5.0%
Emperor’s Children	16	4.7%
Dark Angels	16	4.7%
Space Wolves	15	4.4%
Orks	15	4.4%
Death Guard	15	4.4%

This was not a “two-faction meta.” It was wide and that makes conversions and top-table presence far more meaningful.

2) Representation vs conversion: who turned up, and who converted

Top 16 conversion (share of field vs share of Top 16)

Among factions with meaningful player counts, the biggest overperformers into the Top 16 were:

• Space Marines (Astartes): 9.4% of the field → 25% of Top 16 (4 slots)

• Chaos Daemons: 5.9% of the field → 12.5% of Top 16 (2 slots)

• Blood Angels: 7.0% of the field → 12.5% of Top 16 (2 slots)

• Leagues of Votann / Drukhari / T’au Empire: each around ~2.3–2.6% of the field → 6.25% of Top 16 (1 slot)

The “big presence, no Top 16” list

Several popular factions had strong attendance but did not land a Top 16 slot at Nottingham:

• Aeldari (19 players)

• Astra Militarum (17)

• Dark Angels (16)

• Emperor’s Children (16)

• Space Wolves (15)

  
  

This is where super-major signal matters: a faction can be widely played, even post respectable overall win rates, and still get filtered out when the cut is this tight.

3) Swiss win rates: what performed across 5 rounds

Using Swiss rounds only (Rounds 1–5), and looking at factions with 40+ games recorded:

Highest Swiss win rates

• Leagues of Votann: 65.0%

• Death Guard: 59.0%

• Chaos Daemons: 58.1%

• Orks: 55.6%

• Astra Militarum: 54.1%

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Lower Swiss win rates (still with large samples)

• World Eaters: 42.3%

• Emperor’s Children: 44.4%

• Space Wolves: 45.1%

• Drukhari: 46.3%

  
  

Important interpretation: Drukhari is the classic example of why you track conversion as well as win rate, despite a middling average win rate, it still produced a Top 8 finish (pilot/list excellence can spike in a large field).

4) Top-table presence: who was playing on tables 1–20 in Swiss

Looking only at Swiss rounds and tables 1–20, the factions most overrepresented relative to their field share were:

• Chaos Daemons

• Leagues of Votann

• Space Marines (Astartes)

• Death Guard

• Adeptus Custodes

  
  

5) A quick matchup lens (Swiss-only, small samples)

A few “directional” matchup stats from Swiss results:

• Chaos Daemons vs Space Marines (Astartes): Daemons ~57% across 7 games

• Space Marines (Astartes) vs Blood Angels: Astartes ~73% across 11 games

  
  

Do not overfit these (sample sizes are limited), but they are useful for preparing reps going into the next super-major.

Take Aways from Nottingham 

1. Swiss battle points were decisive.Two players finished 7–0, and the title came down to Swiss scoring. If you are aiming for trophies, you cannot treat points as an afterthought.

2. The playoff cut was brutally competitive.47 players finished Swiss at 4–1; only two advanced—and they did so by posting the very top battle-point totals among 4–1s.

3. Big events create real signal. The field size and faction spread make this dataset meaningful. If you want the best possible read on the meta, and to measure yourself against it, UKTC super-majors are where that happens.